Politics & Government

Legislators Struggle to Protect Education Amidst New Negative Budget Forecast

State budget officials revised the estimated 2011-2012 shortfall upwards by $698 million.

The state’s budget hole got deeper Thursday, with a lowered revenue forecast that reflects a “fragile” economic recovery held back by slow job growth, sluggish construction and now the effects of Middle East unrest and the earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan.

For the current 2009-2011 budget, revenue is expected to be $28.0 billion, which is $80 million less than the state’s previous projection in November, according to the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.

And looking ahead to the next two-year budget, which lawmakers are grappling with now, revenues are expected to be $31.9 billion, which is $698 million less than the previous forecast. The overall shortfall is now in excess of $5 billion.

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And even this latest projection is uncertain because of what’s happening around the globe.

“First, we had the volatility in oil prices because of political unrest in the Middle East,” said Arun Raha, the state’s chief economist, in a statement accompanying the forecast. “Now we have the tragedy in Japan, the world’s third largest economy, and one of the state’s leading trade partners.

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“The recovery continues to face other headwinds--slow job growth; a sluggish housing market; tight credit for small businesses; consumer retrenchment after the holidays; and fiscal drag from the federal stimulus winding down, as well as cuts in state and local government expenditures. Boeing’s tanker win will provide an important economic and psychological boost to the Washington state; however the recovery in Washington, as in the nation, is being held back by a weak housing market and sluggish job growth.”

For Mercer Island, the revised increase in the shortfall means even deeper cuts to the over what was previously feared. Following the state's budget update, Superintendent Dr. Gary Plano immediately issued an updated budget forecast yesterday projecting a $1.1 million cut for the next school year. 

"In the past four years we have done everything we can to keep the cuts away from the classroom," Plano wrote. "Ongoing budget cuts from the state and rising costs are making it difficult to continue this approach."

Assuming the raised the same record amount of funding as last year, the cuts would mean a reduction next year of 6.5 teaching positions.

Meeting with constituents over the weekend at , 41st District legislators heard a chorus of opposition to education cuts from over 200 citizens. But they each said there was little they could do because voters largely rejected tax increases in last fall's election and passed Intiative 1053, which requires a 2/3 majority of legislators to pass tax increases or remove loopholes.

"Those conversations (about raising taxes) were taken off the table," said State Sen. Steve Litzow. "Education is a high priority issue here, but that's not a universally-held point of view in the Legislature. There's $14.2 billion budgeted for education in the next biennium and … we're doing everything that we can to hold that line."

Lawmakers will have to figure out where to make cuts as they deal with the lowered projections.

The legislative session is set to run through April 24, though there's some doubt it will wrap up in time.


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