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Health & Fitness

4th Quarter Real Estate Slump?

11/24/2013

Someone asked me about last week’s post and what I characterized as a pretty normal 4th quarter slump in Mercer Island real estate sales. He wanted to know what the trend has been over time. Have previous years shown the same slump at the same time? Good question! Here’s the Mercer Island chart for pending sales (closer to “now” than sold stats) over months of inventory (measures the speed and saturation of the real estate market). The traditional Q4 slowdown is clear.

The chart also confirms what I tell clients: that my phone starts to ring in January.

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Pretty clear when the recession happened, too, isn’t it? Look at the huge spike in months of inventory and the rock-bottom pending sales line in 2009.

To observe the long-term sales trends, draw a line from peak to peak of the pending sales line.

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